The Jubilee

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  • March 2015
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Archive for March 25th, 2015

Our energy predicament

Posted by Alex Krainer on March 25, 2015

In the wake of last year’s oil price collapse we are once again reassured about an overabundance of cheap oil. This could only be a temporary aberration. Below I present the reasons why the prospects are grim and the price of oil is likely to rise multi-fold in the next few years. The consequences for the western societies will be serious.

During the 19 years of my career in commodities I have observed time and again how significant price changes shape the prevailing market narrative. By narrative here I mean a shared interpretation of the way key causal forces affect market events. Market fundamentals – available bits of relevant data and information – are the building blocks that mould our understanding of what’s going on, but what we do with them depends on how we evaluate their relevance and credibility. This is never a straightforward process, so at any one time we can entertain more than one possible interpretation of market conditions. Read the rest of this entry »


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